Posts Tagged ‘Investor’

Facebook (the company) vs. Facebook (the stock)

May 23, 2012

So much has been written about the recent Facebook stock offering that I am reluctant to add to the stack (though I did, once), so I’ll keep it short.  After going public at $38/share last Friday and climbing briefly to $45, the stock has reversed, closing Tuesday at $31.11, for a loss of 18% from the offering price.  Most investors on that first day of trading paid more than $38, and over 500 million shares changed hands.

In the weeks before the IPO we (along with most other investment firms) received many calls from clients or would-be clients interested in the killing to be made by investing in Facebook.  And why not? Facebook has nearly a billion  users worldwide (I am one) and has become useful for keeping in touch and generating ad revenues for its parent company.  Something used by 15% of the world’s population is a huge deal – so why hasn’t it been a good investment?

First, it’s only been a few days, and Facebook may ultimately prove to be a fine investment. But inside baseball is a game seldom won by the public, and for the last four years, institutions and hedge funds have been buying Facebook stock at much lower prices than the public paid last week. Shocked? You didn’t really think that Wall Street  - with its big bailed-out brokerages and banks – would really give the little guy a break, did you?  The media didn’t help much, with plenty of ballyhoo (see paragraph 12 for the $50 prediction).

So far, the IPO has been a fiasco for investors. That’s because more than just a share of stock, Facebook buyers bought something else – something we try to caution investors against buying: hype.

GTC

(This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Brighton Securities Corp. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This blog post is for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities).

Speaking Volumes

April 12, 2012

Trading ‘volume’ is defined as the number of shares bought or sold during a given time period.  Technical analysts believe it is a powerful tool for confirming trends in prices, or rather shifts in the market’s supply and demand.  If a price trend has a lot of volume then the trend is supported and an investor can have more confidence in the trend.  If a price trend has little volume then the trend is not supported and an investor should be skeptical. 

One of the lead articles on CNBC.com recently was about trading volume in stocks.  It asks a rather poignant question:  “How can stocks be in their fourth year of a bull market and trading activity be so low?”  It is a question that ought to make investors nervous.  The low volume of this bull market has left many wondering who’s buying and if there is any conviction in the rally.  Furthermore, today’s market is characterized by heavy “program trading” that is done in micro-seconds by computers.  These programmed trades are not actual positions based on future expectations.  Rather they are just trying to take advantage of ultra-short term prices disparities.  This is important because oftentimes volumes are what separates bull market rallies from bear market rallies.  The bottom line for the bull market is that this emperor has no clothes.

Brennan R. Redmond, CFA
Vice President
Brighton Securities

(This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Brighton Securities Corp.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This blog post is for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities)


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