Posts Tagged ‘Market trend’

Ground Rule # 7: Do the Opposite

May 11, 2012

Working my way up we have touched on my rules #10, #9, and #8, all of which are very basic “starter” rules for getting involved with your 401(k) or 403(b) plan at work. Today’s rule assumes you are a plan participant and have been contributing for a while. At some point you start to think about what if any adjustments you should make to the investments in their plan. After all, you get your statement or go online, you see the performance of your funds and of all of the available choices and there is a temptation to move some money into the funds that have done best over the last quarter or year. We see funds flow into growth funds during strong bull markets and into cash in bear markets. It’ human nature – you see a fund with a great quarter or even better, a great year or two. Maybe one (or more) of the funds you’re in isn’t doing so well. So you switch.

Eight times out of ten you will have been better off not making that switch. The hot fund has turned cold (in some cases stone cold). So should you never make a change? My rule #8, Better Than a Crystal Ball, suggests using just 4 funds in your plan. Once you have the 4, simply manage them by rebalancing once a year. Bring all of the percentages back in line, swapping a little out of the fund or funds that have done the best and into the laggards so that you are back to 25% each. But wait – no one wants to put money into the laggard. Everyone wants to put more in the best performer. By doing as I suggest you will be going against the flow, being counterintuitive, contrarian. You don’t make money in the financial markets by following the herd. You make it by doing the opposite.

GTC

(This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Brighton Securities Corp.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This blog post is for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities).

Speaking Volumes

April 12, 2012

Trading ‘volume’ is defined as the number of shares bought or sold during a given time period.  Technical analysts believe it is a powerful tool for confirming trends in prices, or rather shifts in the market’s supply and demand.  If a price trend has a lot of volume then the trend is supported and an investor can have more confidence in the trend.  If a price trend has little volume then the trend is not supported and an investor should be skeptical. 

One of the lead articles on CNBC.com recently was about trading volume in stocks.  It asks a rather poignant question:  “How can stocks be in their fourth year of a bull market and trading activity be so low?”  It is a question that ought to make investors nervous.  The low volume of this bull market has left many wondering who’s buying and if there is any conviction in the rally.  Furthermore, today’s market is characterized by heavy “program trading” that is done in micro-seconds by computers.  These programmed trades are not actual positions based on future expectations.  Rather they are just trying to take advantage of ultra-short term prices disparities.  This is important because oftentimes volumes are what separates bull market rallies from bear market rallies.  The bottom line for the bull market is that this emperor has no clothes.

Brennan R. Redmond, CFA
Vice President
Brighton Securities

(This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Brighton Securities Corp.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This blog post is for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities)


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